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Table 1.

Summary interception statistics for one year of incident screening (estimating long-term performance) across cancer growth rate scenarios with and without MCED test.

No screeningCancer growth scenarioIdealized screening
Scenario (years in stage I) No MCED AggFast (1–2) Fast (2–4) Slow (3–7) MIS (NONE) 
Screening type No Incident Incident Incident Incident 
Basic performance      
 Total cancer incidence (100K person years), n 1,187 1,187 1,187 1,187 1,187 
 Found usual care, n (% total cancer) 1,187 (100) 875 (74) 816 (69) 783 (66) 702 (59) 
 Intercepted, n (% total cancer) 0 (0) 312 (26) 371 (31) 404 (34) 485 (41) 
 False positives, n 692 692 692 692 
 True positives, n (PPV = % of positives) 0 (NA) 312 (31) 371 (35) 404 (37) 485 (41) 
Stage shift      
 Total late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) 409 (34) 409 (34) 409 (34) 409 (34) 409 (34) 
 Final late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) 409 (34) 233 (20) 206 (17) 189 (16) 152 (13) 
 Reduction late, n (% total late) 0 (0) −177 (43) −204 (50) −220 (54) −257 (63) 
Breakout by mode found      
 Stage III+IV usual care, n (% found usual care) 409 (34) 183 (21) 148 (18) 130 (17) 82 (12) 
 Stage III+IV pre-intercept, n (% intercepted) 0 (NaN) 226 (72) 261 (70) 280 (69) 327 (68) 
 Stage III+IV post-intercept, n (% intercepted) 0 (NaN) 50 (16) 58 (16) 60 (15) 70 (15) 
 Reduction (III+IV), n (% late intercepted) 0 (NaN) −177 (78) −204 (78) −220 (79) −257 (78) 
Individuals expected to die (IED) of cancer in 5 years      
 Total IED, n (% total cancer) 393 (33) 393 (33) 393 (33) 393 (33) 393 (33) 
 Final IED, n (% total cancer) 393 (33) 319 (27) 308 (26) 302 (25) 289 (24) 
 Reduction IED, n (% total IED) 0 (0) −74 (19) −84 (21) −91 (23) −104 (26) 
Breakout by mode found      
 IED Usual care, n (% total IED) 393 (100) 212 (54) 183 (47) 166 (42) 126 (32) 
 IED Pre-intercept, n (% total IED) 0 (0) 181 (46) 210 (53) 227 (58) 267 (68) 
 IED Post-intercept, n (% IED pre-intercept) 0 (NaN) 107 (59) 126 (60) 136 (60) 163 (61) 
 Reduction IED, n (% IED pre-intercept) 0 (NaN) −74 (41) −84 (40) −91 (40) −104 (39) 
No screeningCancer growth scenarioIdealized screening
Scenario (years in stage I) No MCED AggFast (1–2) Fast (2–4) Slow (3–7) MIS (NONE) 
Screening type No Incident Incident Incident Incident 
Basic performance      
 Total cancer incidence (100K person years), n 1,187 1,187 1,187 1,187 1,187 
 Found usual care, n (% total cancer) 1,187 (100) 875 (74) 816 (69) 783 (66) 702 (59) 
 Intercepted, n (% total cancer) 0 (0) 312 (26) 371 (31) 404 (34) 485 (41) 
 False positives, n 692 692 692 692 
 True positives, n (PPV = % of positives) 0 (NA) 312 (31) 371 (35) 404 (37) 485 (41) 
Stage shift      
 Total late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) 409 (34) 409 (34) 409 (34) 409 (34) 409 (34) 
 Final late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) 409 (34) 233 (20) 206 (17) 189 (16) 152 (13) 
 Reduction late, n (% total late) 0 (0) −177 (43) −204 (50) −220 (54) −257 (63) 
Breakout by mode found      
 Stage III+IV usual care, n (% found usual care) 409 (34) 183 (21) 148 (18) 130 (17) 82 (12) 
 Stage III+IV pre-intercept, n (% intercepted) 0 (NaN) 226 (72) 261 (70) 280 (69) 327 (68) 
 Stage III+IV post-intercept, n (% intercepted) 0 (NaN) 50 (16) 58 (16) 60 (15) 70 (15) 
 Reduction (III+IV), n (% late intercepted) 0 (NaN) −177 (78) −204 (78) −220 (79) −257 (78) 
Individuals expected to die (IED) of cancer in 5 years      
 Total IED, n (% total cancer) 393 (33) 393 (33) 393 (33) 393 (33) 393 (33) 
 Final IED, n (% total cancer) 393 (33) 319 (27) 308 (26) 302 (25) 289 (24) 
 Reduction IED, n (% total IED) 0 (0) −74 (19) −84 (21) −91 (23) −104 (26) 
Breakout by mode found      
 IED Usual care, n (% total IED) 393 (100) 212 (54) 183 (47) 166 (42) 126 (32) 
 IED Pre-intercept, n (% total IED) 0 (0) 181 (46) 210 (53) 227 (58) 267 (68) 
 IED Post-intercept, n (% IED pre-intercept) 0 (NaN) 107 (59) 126 (60) 136 (60) 163 (61) 
 Reduction IED, n (% IED pre-intercept) 0 (NaN) −74 (41) −84 (40) −91 (40) −104 (39) 

Note: All numbers are per 100K people per year. Aggressive: all cancers assumed to have very short dwell times due to aggressive growth; Fast: all cancers have slightly longer dwell times and grow quickly; Slow: all cancers even longer dwell times, slow growth.

No MCED: usual care results with no MCED screening.

Abbreviations: MIS: maximum interception (idealized screening), cancers that can be intercepted are found at the earliest possible stage. See dwell time in methods.

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