Summary interception statistics for one year of incident screening (estimating long-term performance) across cancer growth rate scenarios with and without MCED test.
| . | No screening . | Cancer growth scenario . | . | . | Idealized screening . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario (years in stage I) | No MCED | AggFast (1–2) | Fast (2–4) | Slow (3–7) | MIS (NONE) |
| Screening type | No | Incident | Incident | Incident | Incident |
| Basic performance | |||||
| Total cancer incidence (100K person years), n | 1,187 | 1,187 | 1,187 | 1,187 | 1,187 |
| Found usual care, n (% total cancer) | 1,187 (100) | 875 (74) | 816 (69) | 783 (66) | 702 (59) |
| Intercepted, n (% total cancer) | 0 (0) | 312 (26) | 371 (31) | 404 (34) | 485 (41) |
| False positives, n | 0 | 692 | 692 | 692 | 692 |
| True positives, n (PPV = % of positives) | 0 (NA) | 312 (31) | 371 (35) | 404 (37) | 485 (41) |
| Stage shift | |||||
| Total late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) |
| Final late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) | 409 (34) | 233 (20) | 206 (17) | 189 (16) | 152 (13) |
| Reduction late, n (% total late) | 0 (0) | −177 (43) | −204 (50) | −220 (54) | −257 (63) |
| Breakout by mode found | |||||
| Stage III+IV usual care, n (% found usual care) | 409 (34) | 183 (21) | 148 (18) | 130 (17) | 82 (12) |
| Stage III+IV pre-intercept, n (% intercepted) | 0 (NaN) | 226 (72) | 261 (70) | 280 (69) | 327 (68) |
| Stage III+IV post-intercept, n (% intercepted) | 0 (NaN) | 50 (16) | 58 (16) | 60 (15) | 70 (15) |
| Reduction (III+IV), n (% late intercepted) | 0 (NaN) | −177 (78) | −204 (78) | −220 (79) | −257 (78) |
| Individuals expected to die (IED) of cancer in 5 years | |||||
| Total IED, n (% total cancer) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) |
| Final IED, n (% total cancer) | 393 (33) | 319 (27) | 308 (26) | 302 (25) | 289 (24) |
| Reduction IED, n (% total IED) | 0 (0) | −74 (19) | −84 (21) | −91 (23) | −104 (26) |
| Breakout by mode found | |||||
| IED Usual care, n (% total IED) | 393 (100) | 212 (54) | 183 (47) | 166 (42) | 126 (32) |
| IED Pre-intercept, n (% total IED) | 0 (0) | 181 (46) | 210 (53) | 227 (58) | 267 (68) |
| IED Post-intercept, n (% IED pre-intercept) | 0 (NaN) | 107 (59) | 126 (60) | 136 (60) | 163 (61) |
| Reduction IED, n (% IED pre-intercept) | 0 (NaN) | −74 (41) | −84 (40) | −91 (40) | −104 (39) |
| . | No screening . | Cancer growth scenario . | . | . | Idealized screening . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario (years in stage I) | No MCED | AggFast (1–2) | Fast (2–4) | Slow (3–7) | MIS (NONE) |
| Screening type | No | Incident | Incident | Incident | Incident |
| Basic performance | |||||
| Total cancer incidence (100K person years), n | 1,187 | 1,187 | 1,187 | 1,187 | 1,187 |
| Found usual care, n (% total cancer) | 1,187 (100) | 875 (74) | 816 (69) | 783 (66) | 702 (59) |
| Intercepted, n (% total cancer) | 0 (0) | 312 (26) | 371 (31) | 404 (34) | 485 (41) |
| False positives, n | 0 | 692 | 692 | 692 | 692 |
| True positives, n (PPV = % of positives) | 0 (NA) | 312 (31) | 371 (35) | 404 (37) | 485 (41) |
| Stage shift | |||||
| Total late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) | 409 (34) |
| Final late (III+IV), n (% total cancers) | 409 (34) | 233 (20) | 206 (17) | 189 (16) | 152 (13) |
| Reduction late, n (% total late) | 0 (0) | −177 (43) | −204 (50) | −220 (54) | −257 (63) |
| Breakout by mode found | |||||
| Stage III+IV usual care, n (% found usual care) | 409 (34) | 183 (21) | 148 (18) | 130 (17) | 82 (12) |
| Stage III+IV pre-intercept, n (% intercepted) | 0 (NaN) | 226 (72) | 261 (70) | 280 (69) | 327 (68) |
| Stage III+IV post-intercept, n (% intercepted) | 0 (NaN) | 50 (16) | 58 (16) | 60 (15) | 70 (15) |
| Reduction (III+IV), n (% late intercepted) | 0 (NaN) | −177 (78) | −204 (78) | −220 (79) | −257 (78) |
| Individuals expected to die (IED) of cancer in 5 years | |||||
| Total IED, n (% total cancer) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) | 393 (33) |
| Final IED, n (% total cancer) | 393 (33) | 319 (27) | 308 (26) | 302 (25) | 289 (24) |
| Reduction IED, n (% total IED) | 0 (0) | −74 (19) | −84 (21) | −91 (23) | −104 (26) |
| Breakout by mode found | |||||
| IED Usual care, n (% total IED) | 393 (100) | 212 (54) | 183 (47) | 166 (42) | 126 (32) |
| IED Pre-intercept, n (% total IED) | 0 (0) | 181 (46) | 210 (53) | 227 (58) | 267 (68) |
| IED Post-intercept, n (% IED pre-intercept) | 0 (NaN) | 107 (59) | 126 (60) | 136 (60) | 163 (61) |
| Reduction IED, n (% IED pre-intercept) | 0 (NaN) | −74 (41) | −84 (40) | −91 (40) | −104 (39) |
Note: All numbers are per 100K people per year. Aggressive: all cancers assumed to have very short dwell times due to aggressive growth; Fast: all cancers have slightly longer dwell times and grow quickly; Slow: all cancers even longer dwell times, slow growth.
No MCED: usual care results with no MCED screening.
Abbreviations: MIS: maximum interception (idealized screening), cancers that can be intercepted are found at the earliest possible stage. See dwell time in methods.