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Table 1.

Markov model: assumptions and model variables

Assumptions
• Long-lasting risk reduction of colonoscopy (16, 17); 100% risk reduction in the year of examination and then continuous decrease in subsequent years  
• Compliance with screening is the same among individuals who develop CRC and among the general population  
• Compliance with screening does not change over time  
• Scheme B: utilization of both screening colonoscopies is independent  
• Underlying data of CRC incidence describe an unscreened population  
• Mortality rates (from all causes of deaths) are the same among individuals who undergo screening and among the general population  
Model variables
 
 
• Performance characteristics of stool test  
    Sensitivity, specificity Variation, 50-100% 
• Demographic data  
    Age- and sex-specific population survival rate Provided by German Federal Statistical Office 
    Age- and sex-specific CRC Incidence See ref. (15) 
• Compliance  
    Compliance with stool testing  
        (a) Proportion of never-screened subjects 20% 
        (b) Compliance among remaining subjects Base case value: 40% (variation, 20-60%) 
    Compliance with follow-up colonoscopy Base case value: 90% (variation, 80-100%) 
    Compliance with screening colonoscopy Base case value: 20% (variation, 10-30%) 
• Annual decrease of risk reduction after colonoscopy Base case value: 2% (variation, 1-3%) 
• Target age range for screening Base case: 55-74 years (variation, 60-74 years) 
Assumptions
• Long-lasting risk reduction of colonoscopy (16, 17); 100% risk reduction in the year of examination and then continuous decrease in subsequent years  
• Compliance with screening is the same among individuals who develop CRC and among the general population  
• Compliance with screening does not change over time  
• Scheme B: utilization of both screening colonoscopies is independent  
• Underlying data of CRC incidence describe an unscreened population  
• Mortality rates (from all causes of deaths) are the same among individuals who undergo screening and among the general population  
Model variables
 
 
• Performance characteristics of stool test  
    Sensitivity, specificity Variation, 50-100% 
• Demographic data  
    Age- and sex-specific population survival rate Provided by German Federal Statistical Office 
    Age- and sex-specific CRC Incidence See ref. (15) 
• Compliance  
    Compliance with stool testing  
        (a) Proportion of never-screened subjects 20% 
        (b) Compliance among remaining subjects Base case value: 40% (variation, 20-60%) 
    Compliance with follow-up colonoscopy Base case value: 90% (variation, 80-100%) 
    Compliance with screening colonoscopy Base case value: 20% (variation, 10-30%) 
• Annual decrease of risk reduction after colonoscopy Base case value: 2% (variation, 1-3%) 
• Target age range for screening Base case: 55-74 years (variation, 60-74 years) 
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