The main object of this study is to assess how different stages of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) influences treatment of triple negative breast cancer patient. The data was gathered from Alabama Department of Public Health. We developed a probabilistic pathway scenario tree based on the knowledge from the comprehensive literature review and organized the variables into twelve major parameter categories. We performed Monte Carlo simulations with the software @Risk 5.7 (Palisade Corporation) for the quantitative risk assessment to capture the uncertainty for the treatment of triple negative breast cancer and different stages of TNBC. The likelihood (LH) of having one of the treatments for Stage IV TNBC, Surgery and or Chemotherapy (CT) or none gave that the person is (African American women) AAW older than 50, TNBC ranges from a min. of 1.62 × 10−3 to a max. of 2.35 × 10−2 with the mean and standard deviation of 8.28 × 10−3 and 3.141 × 10−3 respectively. The LH of having one of the treatments for stage 1&2 of triple negative breast cancer, Surgery and or CT or none gave that the person is AAW older than 50, TNBC ranges from 1.78 × 10−5 to 1.053 × 10−1 with the mean and standard deviation of 2.74 × 10−2 and 2.06 × 10−2 respectively. However, there are no standard guidelines for Triple negative breast cancer patients, our study suggests that stage 1&2 triple negative breast cancer patients are most likely to be treated with either chemotherapy or surgery and stage 3, 4 triple negative breast cancer patient are most likely to be treated with combined surgery and chemotherapy.

Note: This abstract was not presented at the conference.

Citation Format: Rupak Chowdhury, Shami Nandy, Berhanu Tameru. Development of a risk analysis model for triple-negative breast cancer stages and treatment of African American women. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Precision Medicine Series: Targeting the Vulnerabilities of Cancer; May 16-19, 2016; Miami, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2017;23(1_Suppl):Abstract nr A41.