We evaluated the longitudinal performance of three options: HPV16/18 genotyping (HPV16/18), cytology (LBC), and p16/Ki-67 dual stain cytology (DS) for the triage of high-risk Human Papillomavirus–positive (Hr-HPV+) women within the cervical screening program in Scotland.


Data were derived from a cohort of Hr-HPV+ women (n = 385) who participated in PaVDaG (Papillomavirus Dumfries and Galloway) study. Performance of triage strategies for detecting high-grade disease was assessed at 3 (in women <50 years) or 5 years (in women >50 years). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and cNPV of each triage test were calculated for CIN2+ and CIN3+ when used singly or sequentially.


The sensitivity of LBC (≥ borderline), DS, and HPV 16/18 genotyping for the detection of CIN2+ was 62.7% (50.7–73.3), 77.7% (63.1–83.7), and 62.7% (50.7–73.3) with corresponding cNPVs of 10.9%, 8.4%, and 11.9%. The option with the highest sensitivity and lowest cNPV was HPV 16/18 genotyping followed by LBC of Hr-HPV other+ and then DS of the LBC negatives. This yielded sensitivity of 94.7% (86.2–98.3) and cNPV 2.7% for CIN2+. Triage performance was similar if women had tested Hr-HPV+ positive by vaginal self-sampling.


Two-step triage with HPV 16/18 genotyping before LBC (or DS) for Hr-HPV other+ women was associated with a lower risk of significant disease at follow-up compared with single triage approaches.


This study provides longitudinal performance data on triage strategies in Hr-HPV+ women and will be informative for the evolution of cervical screening programs that increasingly rely on molecular technologies.

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